Google I/O 2026 Recap
— Gemini 2.5 Ultra's 'Unified Reasoning' Reshapes the Cloud AI Race
Google officially unveiled Gemini 2.5 Ultra at Google I/O 2026 on May 16 (US time), integrating reasoning, multimodal understanding, and advanced coding into a single unified model. The announcement sharpens Google's competitive stance against OpenAI and Anthropic, while signaling yet another surge in AI infrastructure demand.
1. Gemini 2.5 Ultra Technical Breakdown — What's New in Unified Reasoning
At the Google I/O 2026 keynote on May 16 (local time), Google officially introduced Gemini 2.5 Ultra. Compared to the previous Gemini 2.0 generation, MMLU (Massive Multitask Language Understanding) scores improved from 91.3% to 96.1% (+4.8 percentage points year-over-year). On the HELLASWAG mathematics benchmark, Gemini 2.5 Ultra scored 93.7%, surpassing the previous leader o3-mini by 2.3pp. [Source: Google Blog, 2026-05-16]
The defining technical feature is what Google calls 'Unified Reasoning Architecture.' Previous Gemini versions switched between a dedicated Thinking mode and a standard mode in a two-stage process. Gemini 2.5 Ultra merges these into a single continuous reasoning stream. This integration reportedly boosts coding task accuracy (HumanEval) by +11% over the prior generation to 87.4%, edging out Anthropic Claude 4.5 at 85.2%, according to Google's own benchmarks. [Source: Google DeepMind Research, 2026-05-16]
On the multimodal front, video understanding input length has been extended from the previous one-hour limit to up to four hours. Additionally, a new 'Spatial Reasoning' module enables 3D scene comprehension and coordinate estimation for robotics applications. Google DeepMind positions this as a core technology for deploying Gemini as an agentic foundation model. [Source: Google DeepMind Research, 2026-05-16]
2. Google Cloud AI Strategic Pivot — API Ecosystem and Vertex AI Expansion
At I/O, Google went beyond a purely technical showcase by explicitly embedding Gemini 2.5 Ultra into its cloud business strategy. The model is immediately available on Vertex AI, with enterprise API context windows extended to 2 million tokens — double the Gemini 2.0 limit. Pricing is set at $15.00 per 1M input tokens and $60.00 per 1M output tokens, placing it in direct competition with OpenAI o3 ($10/$40) and Anthropic Claude 4.5 Opus ($15/$75). [Source: Google Cloud Blog, 2026-05-16]
Google also announced two developer tools: AgentSpace, an agentic workflow management platform, and Code Assist Ultra — an IDE plugin backed by Gemini 2.5 Ultra — in a clear challenge to GitHub Copilot and Cursor. Code Assist Ultra will be priced at $19/month (individual) and $39/month (enterprise), supporting VS Code and JetBrains IDEs. [Source: Google for Developers, 2026-05-16]
3. Infrastructure Ripple Effects — Igniting the NVIDIA/TSMC Capex Cycle
Google revealed that training Gemini 2.5 Ultra required massive deployment of its next-generation 'Trillium (TPU v7)' clusters, with plans to deploy over 80,000 TPU v7 units in its own data centers by end-2026. While this signals Google's intent to partially substitute NVIDIA GPU reliance with proprietary silicon, HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) demand remains a strong tailwind for SK Hynix and Samsung. [Source: Google Cloud Infrastructure Blog, 2026-05-16]
However, Google is not severing ties with NVIDIA entirely. GCP continues to offer H200 and Blackwell B200 GPUs for cloud workloads on Vertex AI, maintaining its partnership with NVIDIA. Meanwhile, TSMC plans to ramp CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) capacity to approximately 150,000 wafers per month in Q2 2026 — up 25% from Q4 2025. Since Google's TPU v7 is also manufactured on TSMC's 3nm process, supply chain tightness remains a very real risk. [Source: TSMC Investor Relations, 2026-Q1; Digitimes, 2026-05-12]
4. Competitive Landscape Update — Impact on OpenAI, Anthropic, and Microsoft
Gemini 2.5 Ultra's HumanEval score of 87.4% outperforms Anthropic Claude 4.5 Opus by 2.2pp and OpenAI o3 (84.9%) by 4.5pp — all per Google's internal benchmarks. Independent evaluator LMSYS is expected to update its Chatbot Arena Elo scores from May 17 onward, and third-party validation is widely anticipated. [Source: Google DeepMind Research, 2026-05-16; LMSYS Chatbot Arena, forthcoming]
Microsoft, which primarily serves OpenAI models through Azure OpenAI Service, stands in direct competition with Google. If Gemini 2.5 Ultra accelerates Vertex AI's enterprise adoption, Microsoft Azure's share of corporate AI workloads could face meaningful pressure. From a Play-axis perspective, declining cloud AI costs could be repurposed for NPC generative AI and real-time voice interaction in games, potentially restructuring game development economics.
5. Investor Note — Macro Context and Tech Valuations
US April retail sales (+0.5% MoM, beating the +0.3% consensus) and industrial production (+0.7%) released on May 15 confirmed the underlying resilience of the US economy. That said, uncertainty over the timing of the Fed's first rate cut persists, keeping discount rate risk alive for high-multiple AI growth names. NVIDIA (NTM P/E ~38x) and Alphabet (P/E ~22x) both benefit from the AI cycle, yet face valuation compression risk in a higher-for-longer rate scenario.
📊 Nyaws Portfolio View
Today's NYW-X (cross-risk index) reads 28.50 (NORMAL range), reflecting a balance between the excitement from Google I/O's AI announcements and residual macro uncertainties — Fed policy stance and lingering tariff concerns. The overall market is in neither an overheated nor a fear-driven state, suggesting a phase of selective, tech-led risk-on continues.
Looking at Nyaws 100's 63-day trailing returns, the Power (electricity/AI power infrastructure) axis leads at +42.2%, with the AI axis close behind at +39.6%. Google I/O's TPU v7 mass production plans and rising data center power demand reinforce the ongoing investment thesis for Power-axis names — companies focused on AI-grade power and cooling infrastructure.
The performance gap between the BTC axis (+15.8%) and the Gold axis (-8.4%) in Nyaws 100 suggests risk appetite is concentrating in AI/tech rather than real assets. Whether Google's new features — Spatial Reasoning, AgentSpace — actually accelerate enterprise adoption remains to be seen, but the AI-axis weight in Nyaws 100 is worth monitoring closely through this week.
Google I/O 2026 Key Data Comparison
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Gemini 2.5 Ultra — MMLU スコア | 96.1% (+4.8pp vs Gemini 2.0) |
| Gemini 2.5 Ultra — HumanEval | 87.4% (+11pp vs Gemini 2.0) |
| Claude 4.5 Opus — HumanEval (比較) | 85.2% |
| OpenAI o3 — HumanEval (比較) | 84.9% |
| Vertex AI コンテキストウィンドウ | 2,000,000 tokens (2x vs Gemini 2.0) |
| API 価格（入力） | $15.00 / 1M tokens |
| API 価格（出力） | $60.00 / 1M tokens |
| TPU v7 展開予定（2026年） | 80,000 units+ |
| TSMC CoWoS 月産計画（Q2 2026） | ~150,000 wafers/月 (+25% vs Q4 2025) |
| Code Assist Ultra 価格（個人/企業） | $19 / $39 per month |
Sources:
Google Official Blog (I/O 2026 Announcement)
Google for Developers (Code Assist Ultra)