Past US CPI, a quiet reversal — Nyaws 100 auto-rebalances Power → AI
With the May 13 US CPI release behind us, the market's caution has been temporarily lifted. The Nikkei paused after chasing the upside on May 13, FX held the lower ¥157 range, and the weak-yen bias remained intact. Today, May 14, Nyaws 100 paper trading auto-rebalanced its Top-1 axis from Power to AI. The AI axis's trailing 63-day return of +39.92% overtook the Power axis's +30.63%. Today's NYW-X is 28.91 (NORMAL), well below the alert zone. Portfolio value: ¥986,623 (cumulative -1.34%, +13.66% headroom to the -15% stop-loss).
Past US CPI — What Was Confirmed
The May 13 US CPI release was the single most-watched event of the week. The fact that core CPI did not significantly overshoot expectations meant the "Fed cuts pushed back" scenario did not strengthen, and a spike in US long-term yields was avoided. This was a direct tailwind for AI-related tech stocks, providing the material for the AI axis to overtake the Power axis as Top-1 in Nyaws 100's 4-axis score.
That said, the market is not entirely unleashed. Cross-axis correlation is 47.32, moderately high, meaning the "everything moves together despite diversification" state continues. Should any shock hit, the risk of all four axes sinking together remains. Today's NORMAL reading should be read as "did not reach the alert zone" rather than "all-clear."
Today's (5/14) NYW-X 4 components
| Component | Weight | Score | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| SyncDown | 40% | 4.52 | +1.8 |
| Volatility | 20% | 9.02 | +1.8 |
| Correlation | 20% | 47.32 | +9.5 |
| Drawdown | 20% | 29.18 | +5.8 |
| Baseline | — | — | +10.0 |
| NYW-X Total | — | — | 28.91 (NORMAL) |
FX: The Meaning of Holding ¥157
USD/JPY barely moved from the lower ¥157 range through the period around the May 13 CPI release. The trigger for breaking above ¥158 (a CPI upside) did not arrive, and a pullback to the ¥156 range (a CPI downside) did not materialize either. The market is starting to recognize ¥157 as a new "equilibrium range" for now. Reports indicate that no strong FX language was issued during the US Treasury Secretary's visit, easing near-term intervention concerns.
Nyaws 100: The Meaning of the Power → AI Rebalance
In this morning's rebalance check, Nyaws 100's Top-1 switched from Power (previous) to AI (current). This is not the "monthly scheduled" rebalance — today captured "the moment the 63-day return rankings flipped."
4-axis trailing 63-day returns (as of this morning)
| Axis | 63-day return |
|---|