Nikkei range-bound near record highs — yen at ¥157,
US CPI and Treasury Secretary visit are the next test
The Nikkei 225 hit a closing-basis record high of ¥62,833 on May 7 (up ¥3,320 — the largest single-day gain in history), then continued declining to ¥62,417 by May 11, before rebounding ¥324 on May 12 (Mon) after three days of losses. The yen continues to trade in the lower ¥157 range against the dollar, maintaining its weak-yen bias. This week, with the US CPI release and the US Treasury Secretary's visit to Japan as the two big events, the market faces a turning point: will the chase for new highs continue, or will risk-off finally take over?
The Largest Single-Day Gain in History — What Was Happening
The +¥3,320 gain on May 7 was the largest single-day rise in history. The Nikkei carved a new ceiling that day at ¥62,833. The backdrop: expectations for progress in US-China trade talks running since late April, a wave of upward revisions in semiconductor stocks, and rising export earnings outlooks fueled by the weak yen — all stacking up at once. A market that rallies in a straight line this hard must brace for the correction that follows. Sure enough, from May 8 through May 11, the index ran out of breath and pulled back as much as -¥416 from the peak.
The +¥324 rebound on May 12 after three days of losses shows that dip-buyers stepped in. But the bounce lacked conviction — whether the chase for new highs resumes or the correction extends could break either way at this point. Today's (May 13) price action is likely to be the deciding factor.
Nikkei 225 — past week (closing basis)
| Date | Close | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 7 (Thu) | ¥62,833 | +¥3,320 | Record high · largest single-day gain |
| May 8 (Fri) | — | — | Pullback (Nintendo earnings day) |
| May 11 (Mon) | ¥62,417 | -¥295 | Continued decline |
| May 12 (Tue) | — | +¥324 | First rebound in 3 days |
| May 13 (Wed) | In session | — | Awaiting US CPI |
FX: What the ¥157 Level Tells Us
USD/JPY traded in the ¥157.11–157.13 range on May 12. The year-to-date range has been roughly the high ¥150s to just under ¥158, putting today's ¥157 level near the upper bound of the past six months. For exporters (autos, electronics, semiconductor equipment) this is an earnings tailwind, but for importers and household living costs the headwind continues.